New AIJER now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
UGC-CARE Group I Google Scholar |
Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research logo

Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research

ISSN: 2278-1811 Frequency: Quarterly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2012 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: UGC-CARE Group I Google Scholar J-Gate

A Quantitative Evaluation of India’s Commodity Trade Potential with Other SAARC Economies

Open Access Original Article

A Quantitative Evaluation of India’s Commodity Trade Potential with Other SAARC Economies

Md. Kamrul Islam1,  Ariful Hoque2,  Mudasir Rajab3

1 Senior Research Fellow , Department of Economics, Tripura University (A Central University), Suryamaninagar, Agartala - 799 022, Tripura

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Pandit Deendayal Upadhyaya Adarsha Mahavidyalaya, (A Govt. Model Degree College), Eraligool, Karimganj - 788 723, Assam

3 Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Aligarh Muslim University, (A Central University), Aligarh - 202 002, Uttar Pradesh

Volume 13
Issue 3
Pages 65–80
Year 2024
Received: July 25, 2023 Accepted: May 20, 2024 Published: Sept. 1, 2024
Abstract

Purpose : This study examined the intensity of trading relationships between India and other South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) economies. It also evaluated the extent to which SAARC economies’ trade complemented one another and investigated the potential for commodity trade between India and other SAARC economies.

Methodology : The study utilized time series data from 1996 to 2021 and employed the trade intensity index (TII), trade complementarity index (TCI), and revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index.

Findings : The TII revealed that SAARC economies offered a stable and substantial export market for most of the commodities of Indian origin, but the converse is less favorable, except for the commodities of Nepal’s origin. The RCA index demonstrated the feasibility of bilateral trade between the countries because certain commodities in which one country has a comparative advantage align somewhat with the comparative disadvantage of the other. The TCI highlighted that India has the potential, to a certain extent, to fulfill the import needs of SAARC economies, while other members face a significant deficit in this regard.

Practical Implications : The study emphasized the importance of addressing trade barriers and promoting cooperation within SAARC to maximize regional trade. Harnessing comparative advantages and promoting trade complementarity could unlock avenues for economic growth and development for SAARC economies.

Originality : To the best of our knowledge, more studies are needed to identify the commodities with future trade potential between India and other SAARC economies. Therefore, our study attempted to fill this gap and contribute to the limited literature in this direction.

Keywords revealed comparative advantage trade intensity trade complementarity trade potential SAARC
How to Cite

Md. Kamrul Islam, Ariful Hoque, Mudasir Rajab (2024). A Quantitative Evaluation of India’s Commodity Trade Potential with Other SAARC Economies. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 13(3), 65–80. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2024/v13i3/173835

References
  1. Ahmad, I., Kunroo, M. H., & Sofi, I. A. (2018). An RCA analysis of India–China trade integration. Foreign Trade Review, 53(1), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1177/0015732516681885
  2. Akram, H. W. (2020). Trade within South Asia: Unrealistic expectations. South Asia Research, 40(3), 381–396. https://doi.org/10.1177/0262728020944145
  3. Ali, E., & Talukder, D. K. (2009). Preferential trade among the SAARC countries: Prospects and challenges of regional integration in South Asia. JOAAG, 4(1), 47–59.
  4. Anand, N. (2022). Exploring India's export opportunities to surpass China's position in the global arena in the pandemic era: A policy based case study of the leather industry. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 11(1), 46–55. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2022/v11i1/169679
  5. Archana, V. (2019). The potential impact of China - India free trade agreement on Chinese and Indian industries. China Economic Journal, 12(3), 297–315. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1646953
  6. Balassa, B. (1965). Trade liberalization and “revealed” comparative advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x
  7. Basher, M. A. (2014). Pattern of intraregional trade: Unbundling a South Asian conundrum. The Bangladesh Development Studies, 37(4), 1–16. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26538630
  8. Chandran, S. (2011). Trade compatibility between India and ASEAN countries. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1932266
  9. D'silva, S. (2022). Services trade: India's contribution to regional trading arrangements amidst COVID-19. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 11(1), 24–36. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2022/v11i1/169677
  10. Dhami, J. K., Wani, N. U., & Sidana, N. (2020). Trade potential of India against BRCS economies: An empirical analysis based on gravity model. Kardan Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 3(2), 13–26. https://doi.org/10.31841/kjems.2021.31
  11. Dhungel, D. (2022). South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC): Prospects for development. The Pakistan Development Review, 42(3), 933–941. https://doi.org/10.30541/v42i3pp.933-941
  12. Garg, S. (2016). India's trade potential and prospects with Bhutan. IRA-International Journal of Management & Social Sciences, 5(3), 443–450. https://doi.org/10.21013/jmss.v5.n3.p7
  13. Granabetter, D. (2016). Revealed comparative advantage index: An analysis of export trade in the Austrian district of Burgerland. Review of Innovation and Competitiveness, 2(2), 97–114. https://doi.org/10.32728/ric.2016.22/3
  14. Ibrahim, K. H., & Abdulaziz, S. (2018). Nigeria-India bilateral trade relations: An analysis of trade complementarity index (TCI). Available at SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3186729
  15. Irsahd, M. S., & Xin, Q. (2017). Determinants of exports competitiveness: An empirical analysis through revealed comparative advantage of external sector of Pakistan. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 7(6), 623–633. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2017.76.623.633
  16. Islam, M. K., & Nath, A. (2023). Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh: A pre- and post-SAFTA period analysis. Global Trade and Customs Journal, 18(2), 74–80. https://doi.org/10.54648/gtcj2023008
  17. Ismail, S., & Ahmed, S. (2022). Static and dynamic RCA analysis of India and China in world economy. International Studies of Economics, 17(2), 228–260. https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.18
  18. Jagdambe, S. (2016). India's export competitiveness of agricultural products with ASEAN. Journal of Management and Science, 6(1), 72–94. https://doi.org/10.26524/jms.2016.9
  19. Jain, M. (2023). Neutralizing concerns and mapping the trade competitiveness and potential of Indian export with RCEP countries. Vision. https://doi.org/10.1177/09722629221150543
  20. Khalid, N. (2023). An analysis of intra-SAARC trade relations. International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 25(4), 489–505. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijebr.2023.131156
  21. Kojima, K. (1964). The pattern of international trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 5(1), 16–36. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43295433
  22. Kumar, N. (2018). Competitiveness and performance of tea exports of India. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 7(3), 25–39. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2018/v7i3/130153
  23. Kumar, R. (2021). South Asia: Multilateral trade agreements and untapped regional trade integration. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2891–2903. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1941
  24. Lloyd, P. (2011). Free trade and growth in the world economy. The Singapore Economic Review, 56(3), 291–306. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217590811004377
  25. Maryam, J., Banday, U. J., & Mittal, A. (2018). Trade intensity and revealed comparative advantage: An analysis of intra-BRICS trade. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(5), 1182–1195. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-09-2017-0365
  26. Michaely, M. (1999). Trade preferential agreements in Latin America: An ex-ante assessment. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1583
  27. Mustafa, G., & Sharma, A. (2023). An analysis of India's revealed comparative advantage in merchandise trade with Australia. Global Economics Science, 4(1), 32–48. https://doi.org/10.37256/ges.4120231623
  28. Nag, B., & Nandi, A. (2006). Analyzing India's trade dynamics vis-É-vis SAARC members using the gravity model. South Asia Economic Journal, 7(1), 83–98. https://doi.org/10.1177/139156140500700105
  29. Panagariya, A. (2003). South Asia: Does preferential trade liberalization make sense? The World Economy, 26(9), 1279–1291. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1467-9701.2003.00573.x
  30. Raghurampatruni, R., Senthil, M., & Gayathri, N. (2021). The future potential and prospects of SAARC regional grouping: A study. India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, 77(4), 579–604. https://doi.org/10.1177/09749284211047722
  31. Sharma, V., & Kumar, V. (2021). Trade potential under the SAFTA between India and other SAARC countries: The augmented gravity model approach. Statistics in Transition New Series, 22(3), 81–97. https://doi.org/10.21307/stattrans-2021-028
  32. Singh, P. (2016). Intra-Brics trade intensities: An analytical study. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 21(6), 103–114. https://doi.org/10.9790/0837-210608103114
  33. Singh, R. K., Singh, B., & Chauhan, D. (2018). India's trade relations with SAARC countries in the Pre and Post SAFTA periods: An evaluation of trade flows by using multiple regression model. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 7(6), 43–59. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2018/v7i6/141433
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to AIJER

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines