Groundwater sources of Punjab have been principal factors for achieving food security in the country through the success of green revolution. In recent decades, previously abundant and reliable groundwater supplies have diminished alarmingly due to unsustainable and extensive exploitation. Several factors have contributed to this serious situation such as shifting of cropping pattern in favour of water intensive crops at the cost of water resilient ones and meager dependence on canals. The situation has been further aggravated by governmental policies, such as free electricity, aimed at economic improvement but facilitating excessive ground water utilization. The present paper examined the importance of four causal factors in depleting groundwater resources. Furthermore, an unobserved components series model was employed to generate out of sample forecasts till 2025 to highlight the drastic and unsustainable consequences of current usage pattern.

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