New AIJER now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
UGC-CARE Group I Google Scholar |
Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research logo

Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research

ISSN: 2278-1811 Frequency: Quarterly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2012 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: UGC-CARE Group I Google Scholar J-Gate

Extraction and Characterization of Price Cycles in the Indian Commodity Market

Open Access Original Article

Extraction and Characterization of Price Cycles in the Indian Commodity Market

Prabhati Kumari Misra1,  Kishor Goswami2

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur - 721302 West Bengal

2 Associate Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur - 721302 West Bengal

Volume 2
Issue 4
Pages 21–32
Year 2013
Published: Aug. 20, 2013
Abstract

Characterization of classical and deviation cycles in commodity prices is significant for people involved in the commodity market trade. This paper borrows techniques employed in business cycle literature to extract both classical and deviation cycles present in prices of four agricultural (sugar, tea, rubber, and cotton) and five metal commodities (copper, tin, zinc, lead, and aluminium) traded in the Indian commodity market. Bry-Boschan procedure was used to date the classical cycles; whereas three filtering techniques were used to extract the deviation cycles. Parameters such as the number of cycles as well as the average duration of booms and slumps in classical cycles and deviation cycles were determined and reported. Parameters of the classical cycles were compared with corresponding parameters of cycles in prices of the respective commodities traded in the international market.

Keywords Commodity Market Classical Cycles Deviation Cycles Filtering Techniques Bry-Boschan Procedure Duration Dependence
How to Cite

Prabhati Kumari Misra, Kishor Goswami (2013). Extraction and Characterization of Price Cycles in the Indian Commodity Market. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 2(4), 21–32. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2013/v2i4/36076

References
  1. Bonenkamp J., Jacobs, J., & Kuper, G. H. (1999). "Measuring Business Cycles in the Netherlands, 1815-1913: A Comparison of Business Cycle Dating Methods." Research Report No 01C25, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM.
  2. Brain, C.W., & Shapiro, S.S. (1983). "A Regression Test for Exponentiality: Censored and Complete Samples." Technometrics, 25 (1), 69-76.
  3. Bry, G., & Boschan, C., (1971). "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs." Technical Paper 20, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
  4. Cashin, P. C., McDermott, C. J., & Scott, A. (1999). "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices." IMF Working Paper, WP/99/155. Washington, DC: IMF, pp. 1-24.
  5. Christiano, L. J., & Fitzgerald T. J., (2003). "The Band Pass Filter". International Economic Review, 44(2), 435-465, DOI: 10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00076.
  6. Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, J.G. (1983). "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics." New York: Oxford University Press.
  7. Diebold, F. X., & Rudebusch, G. D. (1990). "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle". The Journal of Political Economy, 98 (3), 596-616.
  8. Estrella, A., (2007). "Extracting Business Cycle Fluctuations: What Do Time Series Filters Really Do?" No. 289, Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1-34.
  9. IMF (2010, August 8). "Primary Commodity Prices." Retrieved from <a href=http://www.imf.org/ external/np/res/commod/index.aspx target="_blank">http://www.imf.org/ external/np/res/commod/index.aspx</a>
  10. India Infoline (2009, November 28). "Spot Prices in Commodity." Retrieved from <a href=http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/Commodity/ target="_blank">http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/Commodity/</a>
  11. Ravn, M. O., & Uhlig, H. (2002). "On Adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Observations". The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84 (2), 371-380.
  12. Stock, J. H. & Watson, M. W. (1999). "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series." Handbook of Macroeconomics, In: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (Eds.), "Handbook of Macroeconomics." Edition 1, Volume 1, Chapter 1, 3-64, Elsevier.
  13. Wikipedia (2010, April 4). "Hodrick-Prescott Filter." Retrieved from <a href=http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Hodrick-Prescott_filter target="_blank">http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Hodrick-Prescott_filter</a>
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to AIJER

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines