IPO Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methodologies: A Systematic Review Apropos Financial Markets in the Digital Era
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2024/v13i2/173502Keywords:
initial public offerings (IPOs)
, machine learning (ML), neural networks, SLR, deep learning, artificial intelligence (AI).JEL Classification Codes
, G11, G12, G14Paper Submission Date, January 5, 2024, Paper sent back for Revision, March 5, Paper Acceptance Date, March 15, 2024Abstract
Purpose : With the goal of shedding light on the ways in which machine learning (ML) approaches are now being used in initial public offering (IPO) research, this systematic analysis assessed how well IPOs performed.
Design/Methodology/Approach : To evaluate the efficacy of ML approaches in IPO appraisal, 21 papers from the Scopus and Web of Science databases were analyzed using PRISMA.
Findings : The findings revealed that ML algorithms, including rough set theory, text analytics, fuzzy logic, XGBoost, random forest, SVM, gradient descent, and artificial neural networks, outperformed linear methodologies in IPO evaluation.
Practical Implications : The exclusion of other databases may result in the overlooking of pertinent research, even with the thorough insights obtained from studies within the Scopus and Web of Science databases. Moreover, a singular concentration on ML approaches could overlook more comprehensive viewpoints or other approaches that could provide insightful information on initial public offerings. However, by offering more precise and nuanced assessments of IPO performance, the use of ML algorithms in IPO research can improve organizations’ ability to make decisions. Businesses can use innovative and hybrid algorithms to improve their market success rates by gaining deeper insights and making better decisions about IPOs.
Originality/Value : This review, which focused on the investigation of novel algorithms, offered insightful information about the caliber of ML methods in IPO appraisal.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
References
Abiodun, O. I., Jantan, A., Omolara, A. E., Dada, K. V., Mohamed, N. A., & Arshad, H. (2018). State-of-the-art in artificial neural network applications: A survey. Heliyon, 4(11), e00938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00938
Altman, E. I., Marco, G., & Varetto, F. (1994). Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience). Journal of Banking & Finance, 18(3), 505–529. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(94)90007-8
Baba, B., & Sevil, G. (2020). Predicting IPO initial returns using random forest. Borsa Istanbul Review, 20(1), 13–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2019.08.001
Basti, E., Kuzey, C., & Delen, D. (2015). Analyzing initial public offerings' short-term performance using decision trees and SVMs. Decision Support Systems, 73, 15–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2015.02.011
Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine Learning, 45, 5–32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324
Colak, G., Fu, M., & Hasan, I. (2022). On modeling IPO failure risk. Economic Modelling, 109, 105790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105790
Colak, G., Fu, M., & Hasan, I. (2020). Why are some Chinese firms failing in the US capital markets? A machine learning approach. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 61, 101331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101331
Esfahanipour, A., Goodarzi, M., & Jahanbin, R. (2016). Analysis and forecasting of IPO underpricing. Neural Computing and Applications, 27(3), 651–658. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-015-1884-1
Füllbrunn, S., Neugebauer, T., & Nicklisch, A. (2020). Underpricing of initial public offerings in experimental asset markets. Experimental Economics, 23, 1002–1029. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-019-09638-7
Haefke, C., & Helmenstein, C. (1996). Forecasting Austrian IPOs: An application of linear and neural network error-correction models. Journal of Forecasting, 15(3), 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199604)15:3<237::AID-FOR621>3.0.CO;2-5
Han, J. J., & Kim, H.-J. (2021). Stock price prediction using multiple valuation methods based on artificial neural networks for KOSDAQ IPO companies. Investment Analysts Journal, 50(1), 17–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/10293523.2020.1870860
Jain, B. A., & Nag, B. N. (1995). Artificial neural network models for pricing initial public offerings. Decision Sciences, 26(3), 283–302. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.15405915.1995.tb01430.x
Kaastra, I., & Boyd, M. (1996). Designing a neural network for forecasting financial and economic time series. Neurocomputing, 10(3), 215–236. https://doi.org/10.1016/09252312(95)00039-9
Kanas, A. (2001). Neural network linear forecasts for stock returns. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 6(3), 245–254. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.156
Khosla, R., & Tara, D. (2019). Artificial intelligence and robotics - Transforming the industrial economies. Arthashastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 8(5), 16–21. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2019/v8i5/149679
Kim, J., Shin, S., Lee, H. S., & Oh, K. J. (2019). A machine learning portfolio allocation system for IPOs in Korean markets using GA-Rough set theory. Sustainability, 11(23), 1–15. https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i23p6803-d292597.html
Kitchenham, B. (2004). Procedures for performing systematic reviews (Keele University Technical Report TR/SE-0401). 1–28. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=29890a936639862f45cb 9a987dd599dce9759bf5
Luque, C. E., Quintana, D., & Isasi, P. (2012). Predicting IPO underpricing with genetic algorithms. International Journal of Artificial Intelligence, 8(S12), 133–146. http://www.ceser.in/ceserp/index.php/ijai/article/view/2360
Nayak, D., & Barodawala, R. (2021). The impact of macroeconomic factors on the Indian stock market : An assessment. Arthashastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 10(2–3), 27–40. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2021/v10i2-3/167172
Patanjali, S., & Subramaniam, D. (2019). India, the fourth industrial revolution, and government policy. Arthashastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 8(2), 32–44. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2019/v8i2/145224
Quintana, D., Sáez, Y., & Isasi, P. (2017). Random forest prediction of IPO underpricing. Applied Sciences, 7(6), 636. https://doi.org/10.3390/app7060636
Reber, B. (2014). Estimating the risk–return profile of new venture investments using a riskneutral framework and 'thick' models. The European Journal of Finance, 20(4), 341–360. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2012.708471
Reber, B., Berry, B., & Toms, S. (2005). Predicting mispricing of initial public offerings. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance, and Management, 13(1), 41–59. https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.253
Robertson, S. J., Golden, B. L., Runger, G. C., & Wasil, E. A. (1998). Neural network models for initial public offerings. Neurocomputing, 18(1–3), 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-2312(97)00077-5
Ross, G., Das, S., Sciro, D., & Raza, H. (2021). CapitalVX: A machine learning model for startup selection and exit prediction. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 7, 94–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfds.2021.04.001
Singh, A. K., Jain, M. K., Jain, S., & Gupta, B. (2021). A new modus operandi for determining post-IPO pricing: Analysis of Indian IPOs using artificial neural networks. Indian Journal of Finance, 15(1), 8–22. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2021/v15i1/157011
Tao, J., Deokar, A. V., & Deshmukh, A. (2018). Analysing forward-looking statements in initial public offering prospectuses: A text analytics approach. Journal of Business Analytics, 1(1), 54–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/2573234X.2018.1507604
Tealab, A. (2018). Time series forecasting using artificial neural networks methodologies: A systematic review. Future Computing and Informatics Journal, 3(2), 334–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcij.2018.10.003
TkáÄ, M., & Verner, R. (2016). Artificial neural networks in business: Two decades of research. Applied Soft Computing, 38, 788–804. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2015.09.040
Verner, R., & Rosocha, L. (2015). Yield spread prediction using a genetic neural network. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(4-si), 192–199.
Yu, T., & Huarng, K.-H. (2013). Entrepreneurial firms' wealth creation via forecasting. The Service Industries Journal, 33(9–10), 833–845. https://doi.org/10.1080/02642069.2013.719893