Growth Momentum of Food Grains in India : An Implication by the Structural Stability Regression Model

Abstract

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to evaluate the expansion, trends, and structural changes in India's food grain production, yield per hectare, and pastoralist land area before and after the agricultural strategy was implemented in 2000. The favorable dynamics and structural shifts in agrarian affairs for food grains, land area, and yield reflected the frugality's part in driving growth, ensuring food security, and maintaining structural stability.

Methodology : Secondary data were employed to achieve the objectives related to production, area cultivated, and yield per hectare of food grains in India. The Ministry of Agriculture and Growers' Welfare provided the Government of India's Agricultural Statistics for 2022, which included data on the area under civilization (measured in lakh hectares), agricultural output (in lakh tonnes), and food grain yields per hectare (in kilogrammes per hectare). The data encompassed two separate periods concerning agrarian policy in India, the first from 1979–1980 to 1999–2000, and the alternate from 2001 to 2021. Pooled samples from both ages were used to generate the Chou test (Greg Chou), a structural stability regression model. SPSS was used to repeat average values, the t-test, the F-test, and the combined periodic growth rate (CAGR).

Findings : The exploration indicated that agrarian products, land area, and yields showed a growth trend in India during phases I and II. The average amount of cereals, especially wheat, rice, and coarse grains, has increased since the implementation of agrarian programs. Although there was no statistically significant variation in the product between phases I and II, the average real estate dedicated to food grain husbandry showed a consistent trend overall. Also, there was a significant variation in yield per hectare, suggesting that the Indian agrarian sector experienced considerable changes during these times. While there have been advancements in rice, wheat, coarse grains, and beets, the overall rates for cereals and total grains showed an upward trend.

Practical Implications : This exploration was urged by modernization, a larger area of unused land, increased yields per hectare through productivity advancements, and shifts in product styles as the primary factors contributing to the rise in food grain product. The exploration has its limitations and opens up avenues for unborn scholars. Thus, the emphasis should be on expanding land operations by exercising applicable areas and boosting yields through technological advancements, agrarian exploration, and education; formulating plans to improve the climate change adaptation of husbandry; and supporting India in carrying out its initiatives.

Originality : In discrepancy to earlier exploration concentrated on the development and patterns of food grain agrarian affairs, the current study created a model to probe the structural shifts in food grain product, the cultivated area, and the yield as a result of agrarian programs.