Mapping Recent Fuel, Fertilizer, and Foreign-Exchange Trilemma : Policy Perspective for India

Abstract

Purpose : This paper sought to understand how geography has shaped the fuel, fertilizer, and foreign-exchange (3F) crisis that has impacted India and its South Asian neighbors since 2022, and how such a crisis should be governed.

Design/Methodology/Approach : This paper synthesized policy from national and international administrative and statistical reports on petroleum imports, fertilizer subsidies, foreign-exchange reserves, and gender-disaggregated labor and time use, tracing evidence from global supply chokepoints through Indian districts to households, and comparing Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Findings : The three crises have formed a single cycle: rising fuel prices have raised fertilizer costs, farm costs have increased food imports, and a bigger import bill has depleted reserves and weakened currencies. India’s diversified economy has contained the acute shock, but has not reduced structural import reliance, and the burden has fallen most heavily on transport-dependent and biomass-dependent households, and particularly women.

Practical Implications : Policy interventions can be grouped into three areas: decentralized urban energy planning, agroecological zoning with farmer income support, and bilateral local-currency settlement that reduces dependence on the US dollar.

Originality/Value : Viewing the 3F shock as a slow-onset disaster rather than regular price volatility opens opportunities for concerted action in India and comparable economies.